Crypto Market Key Levels and Trends to Watch
We reviewed the top 10 cryptos: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, and TRX (excluding the stable coins).
Summary
Bitcoin continues to be strong, but it might experience a short-term price drop before moving higher again.
Ethereum looks like it might break its downward trend soon, but we want to see it get above $2,120 to show strength.
XRP, and Cardano are still in a downward trend.
Binance Coin is experience a short-term price drop, but can regain its strength by getting back above the 50-day moving average.
Solana continues to trend upward, but it would be much stronger when it gets above the 200-day moving average and enters the aggressive buy zone (that is looking more conservative).
Dogecoin continues to be stuck in a trading range. We want to see it get above $0.21 before it has a chance to get above the downward trend.
Tron is still struck in a trading range. We want to see it have a definitive move up into the buy zone or below and breaking support.
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Market Review
Let's review what happened in the crypto market this past week.
We will be reviewing the top 10 cryptos according to CoinMarketCap (except for the stablecoins).
Bitcoin · BTC
Bitcoin has been doing really well since April 22nd when it had a big spike up in price and it moved into the aggressive buy zone
It's been slowly trending upward toward the buy zone.
The 50-day moving average is now sloping upward.
Also on April 22nd, the price got above the 200-day moving average and has stayed above.
As the parabolic SAR dot in the daily chart approaches the price, we may see the price fall a bit.
If we see the dot on the weekly chart, we see the price almost reached the dot.
All indicators are pointing toward Bitcoin being strong and potentially moving higher but with a slight dip in price maybe in the coming days.
Ethereum · ETH
Ethereum still continues to be under the downward trend line but hopefully we should see a character change coming soon.
If we look more closely at the price for the past couple weeks, we see the 50-day moving average starting to flatten out.
The price has held above the 50-day for almost a week now.
What we would like to see is the price stay above the 50-day moving average and get above the downward trend line.
If we see those two things, then we see potential for a character change.
Then to make this more viable or make it a stronger buy, it needs to break above resistance at the price around $2,119.67.
Let's make that $2,120, a nice even number.
If the price can get above that resistance, then the character change is confirmed.
That price is resistance from the most recent peak on March 25th.
It is also a support line for lows on August 5th, 2024 and September 6th, 2024.
In conclusion, the price is still under the downward trend line.
We need it to stay above the 50-day moving average, get above the downward trend line, and get above $2,120 that's currently acting as resistance.
XRP
XRP is under the downward trend line.
It has been straddling the 50-day moving average for about three weeks now.
It appears the line is starting to flatten out.
Unfortunately, the price in the past week has been slightly downward, but it has potential for changing its downward trend.
What we would like to see happen is the price stay definitively above the 50-day moving average rather than straddling it.
The price get above the downward trend line, thus getting it into the aggressive buy zone.
XRP has been strong in the sense that it has stayed above the 200-day moving average, so we would like to see it stay above as well.
If those things happen, the potential for a character change and a move upward is more likely.
On the daily chart, we see the parabolic SAR dot is almost at the price, which kind of explains why the price has been going downward a bit.
Whenever the dot gets close to the price, sometimes the dot pulls the price downward toward it.
So if the price does fall below the dot and the dot moves above the price, we should see some short-term resistance and the price fall a little.
If we look at the weekly chart, the parabolic SAR dot is quite a bit away from the price, so the likelihood of a character change or a move up happening anytime soon is less likely.
Of course, with cryptos, things move more quickly given the current price movements.
It could be a few more weeks, maybe, until we see higher price movement, but it is possible within the next one or two weeks we should see the price get into the aggressive buy zone.
Let's see what happens with the price in the next week or two.
Binance Coin · BNB
The price has been in the aggressive buy zone for a few weeks now.
It has been straddling the 50-day moving average, falling slightly below as of today.
The 50-day moving average line has flattened out and showing signs of potentially starting to curve upward.
This is a good sign.
So what we would like to see is the price stay above the downward trend line and definitively stay above the 50-day moving average.
That'll give it more bullish strength.
It'll get stronger when the price gets above the 200-day moving average line, which is about halfway in between the aggressive buy zone.
The parabolic SAR dot has moved to above the price, so we're seeing that resistance right now.
Once the price clears the dot and the dot moves under the price, then we should see more price strength.
On the weekly chart, the dot is above the price but getting pretty close.
I wouldn't be surprised if in the next one or two weeks we see a price move given the trajectory of the dots and potentially intersecting with the price.
Solana · SOL
Solana continues to stay above the 50-day moving average line, which is a good sign. The line is starting to slope upward now.
The next thing we would want to see is a good move in the price action.
If there is a big candle day, green candle, that would be a good buy signal.
Hopefully it gets into the aggressive buy zone, but given that the 50-day moving average line is sloping upward and we see the price trend upward, that would be in a sense an extension of the aggressive buy zone.
The 200-day moving average line is within the aggressive buy zone.
If the price gets above the 200-day moving average and stays above for a few days, that's a very good sign that Solana is on the move.
The parabolic SAR dot is currently above the price, so there's going to be some short term resistance.
Another way to play this is to wait for the price to clear the dot and the dot to move under support.
On the weekly chart, the dot is within the aggressive buy zone.
Right now, buying within the aggressive buy zone is becoming more conservative and buying between now and the aggressive buy zone is the more aggressive play.
Dogecoin · DOGE
Doge continues to be under a trend line, but it has stayed above the 50-day moving average line for a couple weeks now. It is stuck in a small trading range.
If the price can get above the peak of the trading range, which is around $0.2061, let's call that 21 cents, just to round up to a nice even number.
If we see that, we should see more strength in Doge.
Aside from that, there's still much work for Doge to show good strength.
It needs to get above the 200-day moving average line, which is quite a ways away, and also get above the downward trend line.
Based on the slopes of both lines, we should see them intersect end of May.
Given the trajectories of the current moving averages, the downward trend line, the current price action, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw any price action toward bullish sentiment until sometime in June.
But in conclusion, we need to see Doge break above $0.21 for it to have a chance to go bullish.
Cardano · ADA
The price is currently been above the 50-day moving average for a couple weeks now.
The 200-day and the aggressive buy zone lines are now intersecting.
The next thing we want to see is the price get above the aggressive buy zone.
If we look at the weekly chart, we see the parabolic SAR dot is currently in the buy zone.
Given the trajectories of the current price movement and the SAR dot, they should intersect sometime within the aggressive buy zone, maybe in end of May, early June.
In conclusion, the next thing we want to see is the price get above the downward trend line into the aggressive buy zone.
Tron · TRX
The story continues to be the same for Tron for a long time now.
It is still holding above the 50-day moving average line, which is good.
Yet it is still stuck in that trading range.
For an aggressive investor, you could buy now and hope to see the price have a sharp move up into the buy zone and maybe set a stop slightly below the trading range.
As we see a couple times, the price did dip below the trading range.
I would not recommend setting the stop loss order exactly at the bottom.
Maybe give it percentage range or use the lowest dip price.
The next thing we want to see is the price have some kind of sharp move up or down, goes down and breaks the support line.
At least we'll know what direction the price may want to go.
And if it has a sharp move up and it goes into the buy zone and stays there for at least a few days, then at least we know the price wants to try to move higher.
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Terminology
Buy zone: The optimal price to buy. Investors would get the best long term gains in this zone.
Hold zone: The price is above the buy zone. Investors could continue to dollar-cost average (DCA) in this zone, but risk less optimal long term gains.
Warning zone: The price has lost momentum and is below the 50-day moving average. Investors should consider whether they feel comfortable holding or planning an exit.
Danger zone: The price has lost support and the potential for lower prices is much higher. Investors could hold for the long term as long as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are not sloping downward. Ideally investors should consider exiting and buying again when the price has gained support and momentum.
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Disclaimer: The author is not a financial advisor. The information provided herein is not financial advice and should not be construed as such. This content is intended solely for educational purposes. The author will not be held liable if you decide to used this material as a basis for any financial decision-making. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of your invested capital. Only invest what you are willing and able to lose.
I used turboscribe.ai to transcribe the video and did some editing to create this post.